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News, Views & Opinions In The World Of Finance

Dwelling commitments fall 13.2% in September

The number of dwelling commitments made during the September quarter fell by a seasonally adjusted 13.2% to 39,399, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, but increased by 12.4% on an annual basis.

Commitments for private sector houses fell by 4.3% to 25,761 during the quarter, but were up by 2.7% over the year, while commitments for other residential building fell by 13.5% during the quarter, but rose by 39.3% over the year.

 

Filed under: Australian Economy, Home Loans & Mortgages, , , ,

RBA Leaves Rates On Hold For December

The RBA decided to leave interest rates alone this month.   The cash rate remains at 4.75% and since the RBA does not meet in January it means home owners will have a reprieve from any further rate increases until at least February.

The RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens released the following statement today after the RBA Board Meeting: Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Australian Economy, Home Loans & Mortgages, The Economy, , , ,

Rising Interest Rates Can Be An Opportunity

On 2nd November to RBA decided to raise the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.75%.   This is the seventh rate increase since October 2009, when the cash rate was at 30 year lows and continues the RBA’s perception that there remains inflationary pressures in the Australian economy.

Without doubt, it caught almost everyone by surprise as data released in the days prior led most economists to predict that rates would remain on hold.   Adding further negative sentiment to the rate increase was the CBA’s decision to increase rates by an additional 0.20% with the other major banks certain to add an additional premium to their own increases.

For the average Australian mortgage holder Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Australian Economy, Budgeting, Finance Tips, Home Loans & Mortgages, Property Investment, The Economy, , , , , , ,

An Interesting Read

The following article landed in my Inbox and was apparently written by Barnaby Joyce, an Independent MP.   Whilst I generally question his political agenda, motives and quality as a politician he does make some interesting points.

Certain things paint an indelible image in your mind. One happened to me lately when my mother in law told me that whilst doing meals on wheels in winter there was always a place you could find pensioners, in bed. This was not because of an infirmity but because they could not afford the price of the power to stay warm outside bed. How completely self indulgent and pathetic we have become that in our zealous desire to single-handedly cool the planet we have pandered to those who can afford the power bill over those less fortunate to avoid privation. How pathetic we are that South Korea, using our coal, can provide power cheaper to their citizens after an 8,300 km sea voyage than we can with power stations in our own coal fields.

Oh yes, aren’t the solar panels doing a great a job. In Canberra last week it was revealed that they would add $225 to the average electricity bill, and that the Government’s proposed carbon tax would raise them by a further 24%.
It is just that the poverty creep is making its way up the social strata, though I doubt it will reach the most affluent group The Greens. Bitterness on my part I suppose but I represent a party that represents the poorest electorates. Now what other lunacy are we considering, none other than shutting down the Murray Darling Basin so you can have a diet that suits the misery of the winter nights temperature in the unheated house..
Yes we have become so oblivious to the obvious because the loudest voices are not necessarily the neediest. We spend, sorry borrow, for school halls that do not make students more competitive in competency. No school hall taught a student a second language or a higher level maths. We borrowed for ceiling insulation and burnt down 190 houses and 4 installers died.
We borrowed for aimless $900 cheques as we decided that somehow imported electrical goods to Australia would reboot the US economy. We borrowed so much that we are now 170 billion dollars in gross debt. We are told not to worry about gross debt, its net debt that counts. Well try that out on your local bank manager. Try paying him back what you think you owe him, because of what you think others may owe you. Not surprisingly he will direct you to what is noted on your loan statement.
It is funny how the people who try to assuage our concerns with the net debt myth can never clearly identify what are the items that make up the difference between the figure on the Office of Financial Management website as Australian Government Securities outstanding and their miraculous net debt figure.
Since the election, the Labor-Green government has borrowed an average $1.6 billion each week. Every fortnight that amounts to three new major public hospitals or the inland rail from Melbourne to Brisbane. Not bad going for a country that can not keep its pensioners warm.
Whilst we are waiting we are merrily selling at a record rate our agricultural land, mines and now the hub of commerce the ASX, so that when the day of reckoning for or children comes they can try and get out of trouble by working fastidiously for someone else and hoping they feed them. The average foreign purchase of agricultural land over the past two years is 2.7 billion a year or more than 10 times that of the average of the previous 10 years.
So when is all this going to change? When are we going to shake ourselves out of this dystopia that we are inflicting on others less connected but more affected by the self indulgent political delusion. What is our current solution to the very real problems becoming more and more apparent at the bottom end of the lucky country?
Well apparently it is gay marriage. Yep I am sure that will warm the cockles of their hearts, if not their living rooms, that our nation’s wisest are going to engage in hours, possibly days at the end of the political year on gay marriage. Then when we are finished with gay marriage we may have enough time to engage the remainder of our time on euthanasia.
You can not reduce power prices without increasing the supply of cheap power. No other nation has an earnest desire to feed you before they satisfy their own. It is a fluke of history that you are here in this nation but luck is easily lost with bad management and naive aspirations.

 

Filed under: Australian Economy, The Economy, , , , , , , ,

The Strain on Housing Supply in Australia

Australia is growing at it’s fastest rate since the late 60′s, something more akin to a developing nation rather than a developed nation. The growth rate of 2.1% year on year is attributable to both an increased birth rate and a significant increase in immigration levels. In fact Australia’s growth rate on a global scale is only exceeded by SIngapore and Taiwan in the last 5 years. This is extraordinary considering that as a nation our population has been growing faster than countries like China, Brazil, Russia and even India.

Now, all of these people need somewhere to live and the problem is that we have not been building houses fast enough to keep up. Based on average people per household data, each new person requires 0.6 houses to be built but the current rate of construction in Australia is less than half of that.

So what does this all mean?

With the current constraints of a two speed economy, rising interest rates, labour shortages in the construction industry and constraints on new land supply I honestly can’t see this problem being resolved any time soon. Consequently, whilst some economists say that Australian housing is over valued in relative terms the ongoing and ever increasing shortages of available housing will mean increased competition for existing housing stock, particularly in areas that are deemed desirable to live.

The governments appetite to assist potential first home buyers purchase a home has diminished dramatically at both State and Federal levels making it increasingly difficult for young people to get into their own home. This will inevitably cause more pressure on an already overstretched rental market.

Public housing is under more pressure than ever before and only those at the highest levels of need can expect to be offered public housing, again causing more pressure on rental markets.

I still believe that property is still one of the better investment classes and will remain so into the future. Whilst property price growth may slow over the next period of time in all but the most desirable areas, I firmly believe that the old law of supply and demand will cause another period of house price growth well ahead of CPI. And along with this, rental yields should improve dramatically over the next period, making this investment class even more attractive.

Filed under: Australian Economy, General Stuff, , , , ,

The Federal Election Effect

WIth the recent announcement of the Federal Election which will see Julia Gillard, the first ‘unelected’ female Prime Minister up against the budgie smuggler wearing Tony Abbott, it is interesting to analyse the effect this has on the housing market. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Australian Economy, Finance Tips, , , ,

RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent.

The global economy has continued to expand over recent months, consistent with a trend pace of growth. The expansion remains uneven, with the major advanced countries recording only modest growth overall, but growth in Asia and Latin America, to date, very strong. There are indications that growth in China is now starting to moderate to a more sustainable rate. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Australian Economy, Home Loans & Mortgages, , , ,

Interest Rates Expected to Remain Stable

The RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.5% for the near term.

After six consecutive rate rises the RBA paused and took breath in June and held rates steady.

Official housing finance data for April is due to be released this week and is expected to show a 2% drop.   This follows a 3.4% drop in March.

Consumer confidence plummeted 7% in May according to recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute data and is expected to drop further in June.

Filed under: Australian Economy, Home Loans & Mortgages, , ,

Reserve Bank Board Decision June 2010

The RBA at it’s meeting on Tuesday decided to leave the cash target rate unchanged at 4.50%.

Governer Glenn Stevens released the following statement:

Since the Board last met, concerns about sovereign creditworthiness in several European countries have been a focus of financial markets. Investors have generally displayed a good deal more caution. As a result, equity prices have fallen and long-term government bond rates have declined outside of the countries most affected by the sovereign concerns. The Australian dollar fell sharply as part of this adjustment. Commodity prices have also softened, though those important for Australia remain at very high levels.

European policymakers have responded by assembling a large package to provide financing for the relevant countries for a period of time, stabilise bond markets and provide liquidity. They have also committed to action to bring budget deficits down and stabilise debt over time.

The effects of these various factors on the world economy will need to remain under review. At this stage, global growth is still expected to be at about trend pace in 2010. Conditions in Europe overall have been relatively weak, and the foreshadowed budgetary tightening will probably mean that this will continue, but growth is becoming more established in North America. In Asia, growth has continued to be quite strong and may need to moderate in the year ahead.

In Australia, with the high level of the terms of trade expected to add to incomes and demand, output growth over the year ahead is likely to be about trend, even though the effects of earlier expansionary policy measures will be diminishing. Inflation appears likely to be in the upper half of the target zone over the next year.

Consistent with that outlook, and as a result of actions at previous meetings, interest rates to borrowers are around their average levels of the past decade, which is a significant adjustment from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago. Taking all the available information into account, the Board views this setting of monetary policy as appropriate for the near term.

Filed under: Australian Economy, , , ,

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